Biztonság és politika. #biztonságpolitika

Hard-power minden mennyiségben

Have the effects of foreign influence in the 2016 US elections been overstated?

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Since the 2016 presidential elections there is a strong debate about foreign interference.

First of all to be clear: the interfering country is Russia. The eastern comrades in these times are engaged an intensive and a very aggressive foreign policy, hallmarked with the frequent use of hard power. In this context we can see how Russians are trying to influence national elections in the western countries: we can spot the same methods in France, Czech Republic- and most evidently in the US. The main “battleground” is the cyberspace, where the use of disinformation trough the social media and fake news are the tools to confuse the voters. 

Dear Ladies and Gentlemen I’ve got a sad news for you: the western world is in a total war. Yet it is not a conventional one: it is not for territories and resources but for the minds; and the stake is not human lives, but the global influence and the international position. The whole world was surprised when the suspicion emerged that maybe the Russians hacked the elections, although the Russian military doctrines claim long time ago, that information warfare against NATO members is a key element in the country’s policy.       

In the view of these knowledge we cannot dispraise the question: what kind of effects originates from the Russian interference? Most importantly, I do not believe that the Russian efforts were the main reason why Donald Trump won the elections. Yes, they have helped him, but not in the extent than some thinks, so the claim that this is why the republican side won is non-sense.      

So, what are the tools, which have used to influence the result?

In the social media we could spot the very effective use of the fake profiles, which shared and commented thousands of contents. Of course, these activities controlled from governmental units. In the global media, English language channels like RT, broadcast shrill propaganda. These activities complemented with the potent support of the foreign intelligence services are major components of the influential operations.

On the other hand, there are much more important harms which public dialogues often forget to mention: the decreasing trust in public institutions, the deepening gap between the political communities and the appearance of the radical and untrue voices in the mainstream communication.

These are the real wounds that the American society suffered due to the interference of the 2016 elections and these are the issues which worth the public attention. The main harm connected to the interference is not just detected in the votes, but also in public sentiment.

In a country where people cannot trust in the state organizations is an easy field for radical narratives.

In a country where people hardly can decide what is fake and what is real, there lays the shadow of emerging chaos.

In a country where people do not want to understand each other but to fight using their ideologies there gaps open, which one time will be as deep and wide that one is unable to cross.

Of course the US is not in this situation yet, but the national security AND stability is at stake.

When we talk about an issue like this the real question lays not in numbers: it is less important how many plus votes get Trump with help of the Russians. More importantly we must find answers how could it happen? How could a future president meet and have discussion with Russian intelligence officers? How could Russian hackers catch the e-mails of the democrats anytime they want? How could happen the national security services were not able to discover anything?

So the questions for the American society and for the governmental decision makers are not the effects: they are clear and undoubtable. It is the time to choose a path, a new way of policy in our transforming world. The Russians have spoken.

It is time for the West to counter-strike.

Biztonság és politika. #biztonságpolitika

Ez a blog megpróbál betekintést nyújtani nemzetközi politika kulisszái mögé, ahol a hatalomért vívott harcban nincsenek szabályok, ahol a tét az állampolgárok élete, a nyertes pedig mindent visz... Olvasgatása pedig remek időtöltés a reggeli kávé mellé.

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